Franken One Step Closer to Senate

Last modified on 2009-01-05 17:06:55 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

He’s not quite there yet, but jokester-turned-politican Al Franken (not to be confused with politican-turned-joke Rod Blagojevich) is another step closer to being sworn in as a United States Senator.  A winner will be named at today’s meeting of the State Canvassing Board, and Franken, who is currently sitting on a 255 vote lead, will presumably be that winner.  It isn’t a slam-dunk for Franken, however, as the Minnesota Supreme Court must first rule on outstanding legal challenges filed by incumbent Norm Coleman’s campaign.

A Talking Ed’s State by State Electoral Prediction Part One: The Safe McCain States

Last modified on 2008-11-04 15:54:30 GMT. 3 comments. Top.

In less than 24 hours the polls will open in what is surely the most historic election of my lifetime.  With this wild and unpredictable campaign drawing to a close, it’s time for me to take a shot at what I think will happen tomorrow.

I predict that Sen. Barack Obama will become the first African-American President of the United States with a final tally of 52% and 356 Electoral Votes to Sen. John McCain’s 45% and 182 Electoral Votes.  Now for a state-by-state breakdown of what I think will happen, including key down-ballot races.

Certain McCain States - 118 Electoral Votes

Texas (34 Electoral Votes)

Louisiana  (9 Electoral Votes)

Mississippi  (6 Electoral Votes)

Alabama  (9 Electoral Votes)

South Carolina  (8 Electoral Votes)

Tennessee  (11 Electoral Votes)

Kentucky  (8 Electoral Votes)

Nebraska  (5 Electoral Votes)

Kansas  (6 Electoral Votes)

Oklahoma  (7 Electoral Votes)

Wyoming  (3 Electoral Votes)

Idaho  (4 Electoral Votes)

Utah  (5 Electoral Votes)

Alaska  (3 Electoral Votes)

Competitive Down Ballot Races in McCain States

Texas 22nd Congressional District

Rep. Nick Lampson made news in 2006 for capturing former Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s seat in the Houston suburbs, aided by the lack of a Republican on the ballot due to DeLay’s resignation.  Republicans ran a nearly successful write-in campaign for candidate Shelly Sekula-Gibbs, whose name may well have cost her the election.  Seukla-Gibbs lost to Lampson 52-42, but Pete Olson, who is challenging Lampson this time around, is a formidable campaigner and will likely unseat the Democrat in one of the very few Republican pickups this cycle.

Prediction:  Lampson (D) 41% - Olson (R) 55%

Louisiana Senate

Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has been widely viewed as the only vulnerable Democratic Senator in this election cycle, and former Louisiana state Treasurer John Kennedy switched parties to challenge her after coming in third to Sen. David Vitter and then-fellow Democrat Chris John in 2004.  Landrieu has never won with more than 52% of the vote, and the mass exodus of largely Democratic voters from New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina was a serious blow.  Kennedy, however, never seemed to gain traction in the race and has been polling well behind Landrieu.  Excitement amongst Louisiana’s black population over the candidacy of Barack Obama should boost Democratic turnout and carry Landrieu to a larger-than-expected victory.

Prediction:  Landrieu (D) 54% - Kennedy (R) 42%

Louisiana 6th Congressional District

Another prime opportunity for House Republicans is Louisiana’s 6th district, home of state capitol Baton Rouge, where incumbent Democrat and Louisiana-sounding-named Don Cazayoux faces Republican Bill Cassidy and African-American Independent Michael Jackson, who Cazayoux defeated in the Democratic primary for both this and the special election.  (No, not that Michael Jackson.)  Cazayoux has only been in the House since June, when he won a special election against an aenemic Republican opponent by only three points.  Recent polling conducted by the Cassidy campaign suggests a close race, with Cazayoux out in front in the high 30’s followed by Cassidy in the mid 30’s and Jackson in the mid-teens.  Only 9.6% of the population here is over 65, which is the demographic most supportive of John McCain, and the average age is a youthful 32.4, with younger voters breaking sharply for Obama.  Sunny, warm weather in Louisiana tomorrow should encourage extremely high turnout and offset the disadvantage Jackson’s campaign causes for Cazayoux.  Cazayoux’s lead in the polls, the demographics of the district, and the impressive $1.8 million raised by Cazayoux (compared with Cassidy’s $214,000) should be enough to keep this seat in Democratic hands.  Early voting numbers out of Louisiana as of Oct. 28 show that 266,880 of the 2.9 million registered voters have voted, 58.5% of whom were Democrats and 28.45% of whom were Republicans.  36.3% of early voters were African-American, notably higher than the 30.4% amongst all registered voters, indicating what will surely be a massive black turnout.  These early voting numbers certainly must be encouraging to Cazayoux, and only bolster his case.

Prediction:  Cazayoux (D) 44% - Cassidy (R) 37% - Jackson (I) - 19%

Louisiana 4th Congressional District

Congressman Jim McCrery’s (R) decision not to run for reelection left this district, which encompasses much of the north-western portion of Louisiana and is home to famed political mind Charlie Cook, a target for Democrats.  Although a conservative-leaning and largely rural portion of Louisiana, the 4th was held by a Democrat, Buddy Roemer, until 1987, when McCrery, a former Roemer aide, took over.  President Bush won nearly 60% of the vote here in 2004, but Sen. Landrieu carried the district in 2002 and then-Governor Kathleen Blanco, also a Democrat, won in 2003.  The closed Republican primary here has been a highly contentious between attorney Jeff Thompson, coroner John Fleming, and businessman Chris Gorman.  Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche, the leading candidate for the Democrats, is cruising towards victory in a relatively low-key race against retired Army officer Willie Banks, and should not face a third-party candidate like Cazayoux is in the 6th.  The election tomorrow here is actually the runoff for the final vote, which will be held on Dec. 6th.  The election was moved back due to hurricane damage in the region, as was the vote in the 2nd District, which is home to New Orleans.  If Carmouche comes out the victor on the Democratic side, as he should, he will face a substantially weakened Republican foe.  If Obama comes out the winner in the Presidential contest dissapointed Republicans could fail to turn out to vote in December, which would greatly benefit Carmouche.  Assuming Obama does win tomorrow, and Landrieu is also re-elected, Carmouche could very well pull an upset here.

Prediction:  Carmouche (D) 48% - Fleming/Gorman/Thompson (R) 46%

Mississippi Senate Special Election

This race, to succeed the retired Trent Lott for his remaining four years, has become unexpectedly close in recent weeks.  Republican Roger Wicker was appointed by Gov. Haley Barbour to fill the seat in 2007 when Lott resigned, having formerly represented the 1st Congressional District.  Democrat Ronnie Musgrove has previously served as Lt. Governor, winning twice in 1995 and 1999.  Wicker’s former home, the 1st District, went Democratic in the special election which replaced him this past June after awarding 64% of the vote to President Bush in 2004, foreshadowing, perhaps, the competative race to follow.  Wicker suffered initially from name recognition problems, being known primarily only to his former constituents in the 1st District.  He has since made up that deficit in a campaign somewhat reminiscent of North Carolina’s 2004 race, where former White House Chief-of-Staff and 2002 candidate faced off with former 5th District Rep. Richard Burr.  Burr overcame the name recognition problems in the final weeks of the campaign and finished five points ahead of Bowles despite polling showing him even at the finish.  The five point difference was generally attributed to George Bush’s coattails, which were certainly more beneficial four years ago.  There could be something of the reverse effect this year, however, with Sen. Barack Obama’s candidacy bringing out a very high percentage of the black vote in Mississippi, which makes up 36% of the state’s population.  Sunny weather on Tuesday, the large lead McCain enjoys in the state, and the extreme non-competitiveness of the other Senate race here (where Sen. Thad Cochran is 20+ points ahead of Democrat Erik Fleming) may have the effect of bolstering Democratic turnout while suppressing Republican GOTV efforts.  Research 2000 recently conducted polling in which 16 percent of their sample had voted early.  Among those voters, Musgrove led Wicker 53% to 47%.  Overall, the poll found that 51% supported Wicker while 44% supported Musgrove.  This six-point spread may well prove insurmountable for Musgrove, although I believe the numbers will narrow significantly when all is said and done.

Prediction:  Roger Wicker (R) 50% - Ronnie Musgrove (D) - 48%

Mississippi 1st Congressional District

This district, formerly represented by the afore mentioned Roger Wicker, went Democratic in the special election held to replace Wicker after he was appointed to the Senate.  Travis Childers, the winner of that election, is being challenged by the man he beat in June, Republican Greg Davis.  This is a conservative district, and will certainly break for Wicker and McCain.  Davis’ campaign has attempted to do the same thing it did in the special election — paint Childers as a pawn of more liberal Democrats in the House and Senate.  That strategy didn’t succeed in June, when Childers won handily 54-46, and it’s not likely it will work again.

Prediction:  Childers (D) 52% - Davis (R) 48%

Alabama 2nd Congressional District

The retirement of Rep. Terry Everett provides Democrats with an opportunity to pick up a seat in this very conservative region of Alabama.  Everett ran around 70% in each of his last three races in this district, but the Democratic victories in runoff elections in similar districts, some of which I mentioned previously, demonstrates the vulnerability of Republicans in even very conservative districts without a popular incumbent to rely upon.  Polling in the 2nd has been erratic at best, with two polls in August showing Democrat Bobby Bright, mayor of Montgomery, ten points ahead of State Rep. Jay Love, and a second poll showing Love ahead by 18.  The most recent poll, taken in late October, shows Love with a two-point lead.  That’s very close considering the nature of the electorate here, where Bush won with 67% in 2004.  This is truly a toss-up race, but the Democrats can’t win them all, so I’ll give this one to Love.

Prediction: Bright (D) 47% - Love (R) 53%

Alabama 5th Congressional District

The retirement of Rep. Bud Cramer provides the Republicans a rare opportunity to pick up a seat.  This conservative district gave 60% to Bush in 2004, a substantial margin, but Cramer outperformed Bush here by garnering 73%, while his Republican opponent only pulled 27% — less, even, than John Kerry’s 39%.  Surprisingly, the 5th District has never elected a Republican to congress, and Republican Wayne Parker seems unlikely to change that.  Democrat Parker Griffith should be able to ride Cramer’s legacy, and a strong black turnout, to Congress.

Prediction: Griffith (D) 56% - Parker (R) 44%

South Carolina 1st Congressional District

Republican Rep. Henry Brown is used to winning big since he went to Congress in 2000, winning in 2002 with 89% and in 2004 with 88%.  In 2006, however, his numbers dropped significantly - to 60%.  Facing a solid Democratic challenger for the first time in businesswoman Linda Ketner, Brown could be in trouble.  The 1st District is 21% black and the Obama campaign has been running ads in South Carolina.  High black turnout could turn this race against Brown.  Ketner was only five points down in late October.  I predict an upset.

Prediction:  Ketner (D) 50% - Brown (R) 49%

Kentucky Senate

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is in a surprisingly tough fight against the resurgent Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, who twice ran and lost in gubernatorial primaries.  Recent polling shows McConnell with a five point advantage over Lunsford with nine percent undecided.  For such a large number of voters to be undecided on a long-term Republican Senator from a solidly red state, who is the leader of his party in the Senate to boot, is a bad sign.  Lunsford hasn’t run a spectacular race, but a large turnout in Lexington and Louisville could put him over the top.

Prediction: Lunsford (D) 49% - McConnell (R) 48%

Kentucky 3rd Congressional District

Democrat John Yarmouth won this District from Republican Anne Northrup in 2006, a cycle which saw Northrup on the sidelines for two months after the death of her son.  This year she’s attempting to reclaim her seat, but Yarmouth has already solidified his hold on the district and is consistently polling up over 10 points.

Prediction: Yarmouth (D) 56% - Northrup (R) 44%

Kansas 2nd Congressional District

Democrat Nancy Boyda, who lost to former Rep. Jim Ryun in 2004 before edging into Congress with a four point win in 2006, faces Kansas state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, who narrowly defeated Ryun in the Republican primary in early August.  Boyda has refused DNC and DCCC money in the race, because, one would assume, that would tie her to national Democrats.  Unfortunately, that also left her without much money to run a campaign with.  Late August polling showed Boyda with a five-point lead, but considering how quickly Ryun backed down following his primary loss Jenkins has almost certainly made significant gains since.  Boyda would have been better off listening to DCCC chair Rahm Emmanuel.

Prediction: Boyda (D) 48% - Jenkins (R) 52%

Wyoming At-Large House Seat

The retirement of Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin, who swept to office in the 1994 Republican tsunami, opened the door for Democrat Gary Trauner to try his hand again.  He ran against Cubin in 2006, eventually losing in one of the closest races in the country: 1,012 votes.  He immediately threw his hat back in the ring, and is now facing Cynthia Lummis.  Name recognition was inititally an advantage for Trauner, but his lead in polling evaporated by mid-October.  In Trauner’s favor is the fact that much of Wyoming will be seeing rain tomorrow, which is likely to lower Republican turnout in the face of an expected landslide for McCain there.  I predict a lucky break for Trauner.

Prediction: Trauner (D) 49% - Lummis (R) 48%

Idaho 1st Congressional District

Republican Congressman Bill Sali is in hot water in what should have been a safe Republican seat after a number of slipups and an aggressive fundraising effort by Democratic challenger Walt Minnick.  Sali may have lost his seat when he said that, “There are people out there without health care, and we need to address that, but it’s not as big of a problem as some people would make it out to be.”  Not the best move.  October polling showed Minnick up between six and seven points, and there’s no reason to believe those numbers have shifted.  Sali doesn’t hold on to his seat unless undecideds break for him nine-to-one, an unlikely prospect to be sure.

Prediction:  Minnick (D) 53% - Sali (R) 47%

Alaska At-Large House Seat

Republican Rep. Don Young had his party in fits when he won the primary by a mere 304 votes.  Why, you may ask?  Because Young has been embroiled in an FBI corruption investigation, amongst other things.  After 17 terms as Alaska’s congressman, Young has virtually no shot at holding on to his seat.  Polling has consistently shown Democrat Ethan Berkowitz aroung ten points up.  This seat looks to go Democratic for the first time since Young won it in 1972.

Prediction: Berkowitz (D) 55% - Young (R) 44%

Alaska Senate

To those of you following the news, the name Ted Stevens may sound familiar.  That’s because Sen. Stevens was recently found guilty of seven counts of lying on financial disclosure forms, which is a felony.  Democratic challenger Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage, was running even with Stevens even before his trail wrapped up on Oct. 27.  A Research 2000 poll conducted between Oct. 14 and 16, before the verdict was announced, found Begich with a two-point lead.  When they conducted the poll again, between the 28th and 30th, Begich had a 22 point lead.  All of the sudden, Mark Begich is looking like Mark Warner.  I hope you enjoy the Senate, Mr. Begich.

Prediction: Begich (D) 58% - Stevens (R) 42%

PART TWO

Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) Found Guilty on All Seven Counts

Last modified on 2008-10-28 01:42:28 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska has been found guilty of lying on financial disclosure forms in an attempt to hide gifts, largely in the form of a six-figure home renovation, from Alaska businessmen.  The Washington Post reports:

The verdict was announced just after 4 p.m. in a packed courtroom in U.S. District Court in Washington. Stevens (R) sat quietly as the jury foreman said the panel had reached a unanimous decision and found Stevens guilty on all seven counts of filing false financial disclosure forms.

Jurors, who re-started their deliberations at 9:30 a.m. today when a juror was replaced by an alternate, were somber as they walked into the courtroom to deliver the verdict and did not look at Stevens. No sentencing date has been set, and Stevens’s attorneys are expected to file motions seeking to have the verdict set aside.

It is certainly too soon to determine what effect this will have on Stevens’ reelection race in Alaska, here he is running almost even with Anchorage mayor Mark Begich, but it is probably a safe bet to say that Stevens’ conviction puts a victory much farther out of his grasp.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) in Close Race After Being Hit in Face by Hardball

Last modified on 2008-10-27 16:03:15 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) is facing a newly competative race in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District after stating on Hardball on October 17th that Barack Obama may “may have anti-American views” and calling for a media inquiry into the possible anti-Americanism of members of Congress.  The whimsically named Elwyn Tinklenberg, fresh from a vacation in Never-Never Land, has raised $1.3 Million since Bachmann’s comments, doubling his fundraising intake for the entire campaign prior.  Minnesota’s 6th, while very conservative, is not looking like a very possible Democratic pickup.  The two most recent polls, released on the 22nd and 23rd, show Tinklenberg with a lead of three and two points, respectively.

Former State Dept. Chief of Staff Col. Lawrence Wilkerson “Stunned” by Powell Endorsement, Follows Suit

Last modified on 2008-10-27 15:49:19 GMT. 1 comment. Top.

On “Meet the Press” Sunday an old College Professor of mine, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, formerly Chief of Staff to Colin Powell at the State Department, announced that he would “likely vote for Sen. Obama and cross [his] fingers.”  Col. Wilkerson, a Republican, has long been vocal in his criticism of the Bush presidency, saying, perhaps in his most spirited condemnation of the administration in 2007:

You compare Bill Clinton’s peccadilloes for which he was impeached to George Bush’s high crimes and misdemeanors or Dick Cheney’s high crimes and misdemeanors, and I think they pale in significance.

I am not at all surprised by Wilkerson’s comments, or his (albeit reticent) endorsement of Obama.  In all of my discussions with him, Col. Wilkerson had difficulty masking his resentment towards the Bush administration, over the War in Iraq in particular.  There is little question that the Iraq issue, most notably Secretary Powell’s now infamous address before the United Nations pressing the case for war, sullied Powell’s reputation.  Though Powell and Wilkerson had a very public break when Wilkerson came out strongly in the press against the conduct of the Iraq War, Wilkerson’s respect for his former boss is palpable and he no doubt feels some resentment towards Sen. McCain, who has been a very vocal supporter of the conflict, for playing a role in the tarnishing of the Powell’s legacy.

Nevertheless, Wilkerson stated that his primary dissatisfaction with McCain came not from his days in the State Department, but rather from the McCain campaign itself.  Said Wilkerson,

McCain, who in the course of his senate career was never too corrupted by the process, has run a campaign that proves he wants so badly to win the Oval Office that he was willing [to] sacrifice his integrity and character and found himself in the thrall of vested interest.

Obama Raises 150 Million in September; Wins Powell Endorsement

Last modified on 2008-10-19 17:18:13 GMT. 3 comments. Top.

It’s a good day for Barack Obama.  With polls narrowing over the past several days, there was perhaps a glimmer of hope for a McCain campaign struggling to find a cohesive message.  Today, the McCain campaign has taken a serious hit.  It began, appropriately enough, as Barack Obama was speaking to a massive crowd of 100,000 in Missouri.  The Obama campaign announced that they had raised a staggering $150,000,000 in September, explaining how they’ve paid for a 3-1 lead in advertising and several 30 minute prime time infomercial-type programs at the end of the month.  On top of that announcement, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and Secretary of State Colin Powell went on Meet the Press and endorsed Obama.  They’re smiling in the Obama campaign today, and this kind of day is just what they needed to pick up the momentum they’d lost over the past week.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) Calls For Media Inquiry into Patriotism of Congress

Last modified on 2008-10-17 22:26:03 GMT. 1 comment. Top.

Appearing on Hardball with Chris Matthews this afternoon,  Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota’s 6th district called for a media inquiry into the patriotism of members of the House and Senate.  Charging that liberal and leftist members of Congress did not care for America, the Congresswoman tasked the media with investigating the patriotism of Senators and Representatives.

This came in the wake of a discussion about the anti-Americanism of Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.  Oddly enough, it was not very long ago that Congresswoman Bachmann stated to the AP that “If the presidency would somehow go to Barack Obama, I would welcome him to the 6th District as well.  As a matter of fact, I would put my hand on his shoulder and give him a kiss if he wanted to.”  That, of course, a reference to the infamous incident on the floor of the House following George W. Bush’s most recent State of the Union speech when she became very physical with the President.

The statements made by Rep. Bachmann immediately led to a comparison to the late anti-communist crusader Sen. Joe McCarthy.  Bachmann’s comments are interestingly timed, as her re-election race has been narrowing lately, and it would seem appropriate to deem these statements as the highly charged rhetoric of a politician clawing to preserve their office.  While that may explain Rep. Bachmann’s statement, it does not excuse it.  To call any member of the United States House or Senate unpatriotic is wildly absurd.  What is unpatriotic about wading through such theatrical absurdity as this (such statements being the perpetual product of politicians in October), grueling hours on the campaign trail, the constant scrutiny of friends, family, and self, only to, at the end of it, join the body that continually grapples with the most difficult questions in the world?  No sane person would subject themselves to a campaign if they didn’t care about this country and the people who inhabit it.  Of course, the argument can be made that some of the candidates for and members of the Congress are not sane.  If that is the case, I would include Michele Bachmann in that demographic.

Sarah Palin Speaks in Snippets of Shakespearean Dialogue

Last modified on 2008-10-17 22:37:12 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

We’ve taken excerpts from Sarah Palin’s speeches and public statements and inserted them into various scenes from some of the works of the Bard, William Shakespeare.  Enjoy!

from King Lear

GLOUCESTER : Sir, this young fellow’s mother could: whereupon
she grew round-wombed, and had, indeed, sir, a son
for her cradle ere she had a husband for her bed.
Do you smell a fault?

PALIN: I’m just one of many moms who’ll say an extra prayer each night

For our sons and daughters going into harm’s way.

GLOUCESTER : But I have, sir, a son by order of law, some year
elder than this, who yet is no dearer in my account:
though this knave came something saucily into the
world before he was sent for, yet was his mother
fair; there was good sport at his making, and the
whoreson must be acknowledged. Do you know this
noble gentleman, Edmund?

PALIN: Our family has the same ups and downs as any other,
The same challenges and the same joys.
Sometimes even the greatest joys bring challenge.
And children with special needs inspire a special love.

KENT: I must love you, and sue to know you better.

PALIN: Hold me accountable.

from Twelfth Night

MARIA: He’s coming, madam; but in very strange manner.  He is, sure, posessed, madam.

PALIN: We’ve all heard his dramatic speeches before devoted followers.

MARIA: No. madam, he does nothing but smile: your
ladyship were best to have some guard about you, if
he come; for, sure, the man is tainted in’s wits.

MALVOLIO: Sweet lady, ho, ho.

PALIN : That luxury jet was over the top. I put it on eBay.
I also drive myself to work.

MALVOLIO: Sad, lady! I could be sad: this does make some
obstruction in the blood, this cross-gartering; but
what of that? if it please the eye of one, it is
with me as the very true sonnet is, ‘Please one, and
please all.’

PALIN: And I thought we could muddle through without the
governor’s personal chef - although I’ve got to admit that sometimes
my kids sure miss her. I came to office promising to control spending -
by request if possible and by veto if necessary.

MALVOLIO :  I think we do know the sweet Roman hand.

from Henry V

BEDFORD :  [S]he is full of valour as of kindness;
Prince[ss]ly in both.

Enter the PALIN

WESTMORELAND :   O that we now had here
But one ten thousand of those men in England
That do no work to-day!

Palin: Pray for our military men and women
who are striving to do what is right.
Also, for this country, that our leaders, our national leaders,
are sending soldiers out on a task that is from God.
That’s what we have to make sure that we’re praying for,
that there is a plan and that that plan is God’s plan!

Obama Solidifying Lead

Last modified on 2008-10-17 02:43:54 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

The economic crisis that has gripped the worlds’ economies over recent weeks has stock markets dropping and Brack Obama’s chances of becoming President soaring.  Today’s Gallup tracking poll has Obama up nine points nationally, leading John McCain 51-42.

The swing towards Obama in the national polls has been echoed in individual battleground states.  Rasmussen has Obama up 11 in Oregon, Survey USA shows Obama leading by a startlingly wide 13 point margin in Iowa, Research 2000 shows Obama up five in Florida,  and InAdv has Obama up five in Ohio.  With numerous recent polls in Virginia showing Obama solidifying a lead in the Old Dominion, the electoral math in McCain headquarters is getting simpler by the day.  If McCain loses Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, or Virginia, Obama will be the next president.  Those aren’t great odds.

A Story in Pictures: A Week on the Campaign Trail

Last modified on 2008-10-11 17:34:39 GMT. 2 comments. Top.

Sarah Palin’s Interview with Katie Couric: Disaster

Last modified on 2008-09-25 18:28:51 GMT. 2 comments. Top.

What a performance by Sarah Palin in her interview with Katie Couric.  In just a few short minutes she told Couric she’d “get back to her” with examples of when in the past 26 years John McCain had supported increasing regulations on financial institutions, stumbled into a long, long silence when asked about McCain campaign manager Rick Davis’ ties to Fannie Mae, and declared that we might be on track to another Great Depression.  In other news, the fundamentals of the economy are strong.  Check it out:

George Will Endorses Barack Obama?

Last modified on 2008-10-11 03:23:57 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Perhaps the most shocking thing I’ve seen in a month of being shocked:

Conservatives who insist that electing McCain is crucial usually start, and increasingly end, by saying he would make excellent judicial selections. But the more one sees of his impulsive, intensely personal reactions to people and events, the less confidence one has that he would select judges by calm reflection and clear principles, having neither patience nor aptitude for either.

It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?

Is George Will all but endorsing Barack Obama?  Now I really didn’t see that one coming.

Senate Campaign Update: Sep. 22

Last modified on 2008-10-11 00:46:55 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

There has been a great deal of movement in Senate races all over the country.  Let’s take a look at a couple of the more interesting races.

Mississippi - Sen. Roger Wicker (R) vs. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D)

There’s been a great deal of controversy in Mississippi, where appointed Sen. Roger Wicker, filling in for the racis- excuse me, I mean retired, Trent Lott, is facing a stronger-than-expected challenge from former Governor Ronnie Musgrove.  Apparently the Secretary of State down there got the idea of putting the Wicker-Musgrove race at the bottom of the ballot with the hope that first-time voters drawn to the Obama candidacy wouldn’t notice the Senate contest and vote for Musgrove.  Classy.  (See “Barack Obama is an Elitist” for more of this classy type stuff.)  Wicker, who’s had some problems with name recognition, had been down in the polls for various periods of time, but apparently has scratched out a five-point lead according to recent polling.  Expect that lead to hold, at least for the next few weeks, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the continuing economic woes give Musgrove a bounce at some point.

Minnesota - Sen. Norm Coleman (R) vs. Al Franken (D)

This race is a hot one.  Recent polling has Coleman and Franken locked in a one-point race.  It’s been a long summer for Franken, but it would appear that he has weathered the storm.  Both candidates are pulling in a lot of cash and filling up a lot of airtime.  The big question here for me is the McCain/Palin campaign.  With the Obama folks giving the state serious attention, does McCain ultimately help or hurt Coleman?  If Obama’s performance in the coming debates is good enough, that could put Minnesota in the bag for him.  If that happens, I expect Franken to pull out in front.  Otherwise, this one is going to be down to the wire.

North Carolina - Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) vs. Kay Hagan (D)

Interesting race in North Carolina, to be sure.  Recent polling has been all over the place, so it’s safe to say that it’s a bit volatile.  Over at Campaign Diaries they’re saying that “this is a race in which the presidential coattails will play a crucial factor. It’s unlikely Hagan can win if McCain wins in a blowout, but she would look very strong if Obama is within 2-3% of McCain.”  I’m inclined to agree, and given the Presidential polling in the Tar Heel State things are looking good for Kay Hagan.  Plus, these ads are excellent:

Virginia - Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) vs. Gov. Mark Warner (D)

I don’t understand why Jim Gilmore doesn’t just go home and get some rest.

Oregon - Sen. Gordon Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D)

The polls in Oregon are tight.  Very, very tight.  And that means only one thing:  Gordon Smith is in trouble.  A sitting Senator running neck-and-neck with a Democratic challenger in this electoral environment in a state Obama is going to do very well in does not bode well for Sen. Smith.  I fully expect Merkley to pull this one out despite his lackluster campaigning.

The Democratic National Convention: Monday

Last modified on 2008-08-27 20:26:03 GMT. 2 comments. Top.

I’ll hold my thoughts on Sen. Biden close to my chest until he formally accepts the Vice Presidential Nomination, but in the meantime, let’s examine what’s happened thus far in Denver, and what impact we can expect it to have on the race at large.

Thus far, I think it is safe to say that the proceedings have gone as well for the democrats as they could have hoped. Let’s go to the play by play:

Monday

Three things really made the show on Monday.

First, Jim Leach, a former Republican Congressman from Iowa, playing a convincing Joe Lieberman doppleganger. A selection from his remarks:

In troubled times, it was understood that country comes before party, that in perilous moments mutual concern for the national interest must be the only factor in political judgments. This does not mean that debate within and between the political parties should not be vibrant. Yet what frustrates so many citizens is the lack of bipartisanship in Washington and the way today’s Republican Party has broken with its conservative heritage.

The party that once emphasized individual rights has gravitated in recent years toward regulating values. The party of military responsibility has taken us to war with a country that did not attack us. The party that formerly led the world in arms control has moved to undercut treaties crucial to the defense of the earth. The party that prides itself on conservation has abdicated its responsibilities in the face of global warming. And the party historically anchored in fiscal restraint has nearly doubled the national debt, squandering our precious resources in an undisciplined and unprecedented effort to finance a war with tax cuts.

It will be interesting to see how many times we hear in Minneapolis that the debate between parties should be vibrant. Statements like that indicate, to me at any rate, why Congressman Leach found himself in Denver this year. It’s a refreshing lapse of partisan vitriol in the midst of, for this week at least, the most partisan gathering in the country. Indeed, the first night of the convention was marked by the relative absence of criticism leveled towards the Republicans — a point of interest for television bloviators who bemoaned the civility of the occasion. Whenever I hear people on the networks saying that the lack of criticism aimed at the opponent might be a mistake, I tend to think that’s because they can’t use “blasted” or “slammed” in their headlines, which just isn’t as much fun. I mean, seriously. For weeks everyone has been talking about how Sen. Obama needs to connect with the voters, show them who he really is, what he stands for, and then, when the purpose of the night was to help establish that connection, criticize the speakers for not talking enough smack about John McCain. That’s why I get my news from myself, and why you should too!

At any rate, Caroline Kennedy, who was also a member of the Vice Presidential Search Committee for the Obama Campaign, came up for what was scheduled to be a tribute to Sen. Edward Kennedy, who was diagnosed with brain cancer in May and has been undergoing treatment all summer. In a surprise appearance, however, the Senator appeared in person, against doctor’s orders, to address the convention. His gait was weak as he approached the podium but he never once leaned back on the stool stealthily placed behind him and his voice never faltered.

We are told that Barack Obama believes too much in an America of high purpose and bold endeavor.

But when John Kennedy thought of going to the moon, he didn’t say, it’s too far, we can’t get there, we shouldn’t even try.

Our people answered his call and rose to the challenge — and today an American flag still marks the surface of the moon.

Yes, we are Americans. This is what we do. We reach the moon. We scale the heights. I know it. I’ve seen it. I’ve lived it. And we can do it again.

There is a new wave of change all around us- and if we set our compass true, we will reach our destination-not merely victory for our party, but renewal for our nation.

And this November, the torch will be passed again to a new generation of Americans.

And so with Barack Obama — for you and for me, for our country and for our cause - the work begins anew, the hope rises again, and the dream lives on.

It was an emotional moment, and a powerful one. I wish Sen. Kennedy all the best in his recovery, and hope that he does, indeed, return to the Senate Floor.

After Sen. Kennedy spoke, the night was capped off with a spectacular speech by Michelle Obama, the wife of Sen. Obama. By all accounts, she was not thrilled with her husband’s decision to run for President, or for him to become involved in politics at all. I certainly cannot blame her, but her speech was a beautiful affirmation of why she didn’t put her foot down. Despite the fact that she had to put her own life on hold, despite the fact that it would no doubt be a trying time for both she and Sen. Obama, and despite the fact that it would certainly have serious implications for their ability to raise their children, Mrs. Obama made the case that what she believed they could accomplish in the White House would so outweigh the personal obstacles they would face that it was, in the end, an easy decision.

And in the end, after all that’s happened these past 19 months, the Barack Obama I know today is the same man I fell in love with 19 years ago. He’s the same man who drove me and our new baby daughter home from the hospital 10 years ago this summer, inching along at a snail’s pace, peering anxiously at us in the rearview mirror, feeling the whole weight of her future in his hands, determined to give her everything he’d struggled so hard for himself, determined to give her what he never had: the affirming embrace of a father’s love.

And as I tuck that little girl and her little sister into bed at night, I think about how one day, they’ll have families of their own. And one day, they—and your sons and daughters—will tell their own children about what we did together in this election. They’ll tell them how this time we listened to our hopes, instead of our fears. How this time, we decided to stop doubting and to start dreaming.

How this time, in this great country, where a girl from the south side of Chicago can go to college and law school, and the son of a single mother from Hawaii can go all the way to the White House. We committed ourselves to building the world as it should be.

So tonight, in honor of my father’s memory and my daughters’ future, out of gratitude to those whose triumphs we mark this week and those whose everyday sacrifices have brought us to this moment, let us devote ourselves to finishing their work. Let us work together to fulfill their hopes and let us stand together to elect Barack Obama President of the United States of America.

All told, I think Monday was a very effective night for the Democrats. Mrs. Obama’s speech was excellent, and I’m sure it put on hold the thought in many Americans that Barack Obama might not share their values or their experiences. Sen. Kennedy’s speech was a point around which all Democrats could rally, and perhaps went a step towards cementing Obama’s perception as the heir of John F. Kennedy. In short, Monday was a good night for the Democrats.

Obama’s Vice Presidential Candidate: Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del)

Last modified on 2008-08-23 14:49:19 GMT. 1 comment. Top.

Well, after a series of leaks in the wee hours of the morning indicated Joe Biden would be the Democratic nominee for the Vice Presidency the Obama Campaign confirmed this morning that Sen. Biden, a two-time contender himself, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, and former chairman of the Senate Judiciary committee would be the running mate.  The obvious attraction for Biden is his dearth of experience in foreign policy.  Biden can go toe-to-toe with McCain on any foreign policy issue and never have to worry about accusations of inexperience, that’s for sure.  Biden’s biggest flaw, on the other hand, is his tendency to say extremely ill-advised things at the worst possible time. There will be snippets of those popping up all over the place in the coming days I’m sure.  But for now, we shall sit and wait for Obama and Biden’s first rally together, coming up this afternoon before the State House in Illinois.

Coming Soon:  A more in-depth look at Sen. Biden, a man I’ve long admired who has a past which is nothing less than fascinating.