In less than 24 hours the polls will open in what is surely the most historic election of my lifetime.  With this wild and unpredictable campaign drawing to a close, it’s time for me to take a shot at what I think will happen tomorrow.

I predict that Sen. Barack Obama will become the first African-American President of the United States with a final tally of 52% and 356 Electoral Votes to Sen. John McCain’s 45% and 182 Electoral Votes.  Now for a state-by-state breakdown of what I think will happen, including key down-ballot races.

Certain Obama States - 228 Electoral Votes

Washington (11 Electoral Votes)

Oregon (7 Electoral Votes)

California (55 Electoral Votes)

Hawaii (4 Electoral Votes)

Iowa (7 Electoral Votes)

Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)

Illinois (21 Electoral Votes)

Michigan (17 Electoral Votes)

New York (31 Electoral Votes)

Maine (4 Electoral Votes)

Vermont (3 Electoral Votes)

New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes)

Maryland (10 Electoral Votes)

Rhode Island (4 Electoral Votes)

Connecticut (7 Electoral Votes)

New Jersey (15 Electoral Votes)

Delaware (3 Electoral Votes)

Massachusetts (12 Electoral Votes)

District of Columbia (3 Electoral Votes)

Competitive Down Ballot Races in Obama States

Washington 8th Congressional District

Congressman Dave Reichert finds himself in a situation common to Republican incumbents this cycle.  I believe they’ve had some jackets made.  Reichert is a popular incumbent and a savvy politician, but he may just find himself out of work in January because of the widespread dissatisfaction with his party.  Polling through early October showed Reichert with a lead between six and eight points over Democrat Darcy Burner, who was a mere two points from unseating Reichert in 2006.  The two most recent polls, however, show Burner with a lead of four and the two tied at 46% each.  Burner has done an excellent job fundraising this cycle, and Reichert is going to have a hard time getting out his voters in enough numbers to push back against the Obama campaign’s voter mobilization efforts.  Obama’s momentum in Washington, combined with the Democrat’s tremendous ground game, should put Burner over the top against Reichert, who has yet to garner more than 52% in these Seattle suburbs.

Prediction:  Burner (D) 51% - Reichert (R) 49%

Oregon Senate

Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has been fighting against the prevailing political wins, a low approval rating, and a state that has been trending strongly Democratic in recent cycles.  State House Speaker Jeff Merkley is looking to benefit from the Democratic lean here, and all recent polling would indicate he is well positioned to cash in.  With Merkley’s numbers hovering just short of 50% and Smith stuck in the mid and low 40’s, it is a near certainty that Merkley will ride Obama’s coattails into the Senate.

Prediction: Merkley (D) 53% - Smith (R) 46%

California 4th Congressional District

Rep. John Doolittle’s retirement kept this race close.  After being mixed up in the Jack Abramoff embroglio, Doolittle had no choice but to retire.  After the story broke, but before any investigation had gotten into full swing, Doolittle squeaked past comically named Democrat Charlie Brown 49-46 in 2006.  Brown is running again, this time against State Senator Tom McClintock, who doesn’t actually live within 400 miles of the district.  Polling has Brown up half a dozen points, and Brown should also ride Obama’s powerful lead in California to victory.

Prediction: Brown (D) 54% - McClintock (R) 45%

Wisconsin 8th Congressional District

Democratic Congressman Steve Kagen only barely got by Republican John Gard in 2006, winning with 51% of the vote to Gard’s 49%.  Kagen, sitting in a center-right district, has made things worse for himself with a number of damaging gaffes, including an ill-advised swipe at Laura Bush.  Nonetheless, Kagen has found himself well up in the polls, and apparently the people of the 8th District are willing to give him a pass.

Prediction: Kagen (D) 56% - Gard (R) 44%

Illinois 11th Congressional District

Republican Congressman Jerry Weller is yet another veteran of the 1994 election who has decided to hang it up this year, and Republicans seem unlikely to hold on to this district given that the winner of the Republican primary has dropped out.  Republican Martin Ozinga has given Democrat Debbie Halvorson a run for her money, but Halvorson has been up over 10 points in the polls and Ozinga doesn’t seem to have much of a chance in the face of what will certainly be massive turnout to support home state candidate Barack Obama.

Prediction:  Halvorson (D) 56% - Ozinga (R) 43%

Illinois 10th Congressional District

Republican Mark Kirk beat Democratic challenger Dan Seals by four points in 2006, and the rematch has all the makings of another close race.  Kirk managed to win with 64% of the vote in a district that gave John Kerry a six point victory in 2004.  Unfortunately for him, Obama’s coattails in the Chicago suburbs that make up the 10th District are as long as anywhere, and polls since the credit crisis have punished Kirk.

Prediction: Seals (D) 53% - Kirk (R) 46%

Michigan 7th Congressional District

Republican Rep. Tim Walberg is embroiled in another rematch campaign with Democrat Mark Schauer, who Walberg beat out by four points in 2006.  Walberg beat out more moderate Rep. Joe Schwartz in the 2006 Republican primary.  Schauer ran against Schwartz in 2004 and lost 58-36.  2006 saw a six-point increase for Schauer and a ten point drop on the Republican side of the ballot, evidence that Walberg is a shade too conservative for this district.  Running almost neck-and-neck in August, the financial crisis, coupled with McCain’s pullout from Michigan several weeks ago, should give Schauer the edge.  Third time’s a charm!

Prediction:  Schauer (D) 54% - Walberg (R) 45%

Michigan 9th Congressional District

Republican Rep. Joe Knollenberg has been re-elected eight times, but most recently, in 2006, he only came out with 52% of the vote.  Democrat Gary Peters was a very successful fundraiser, and has done everything necessary to compete in this district.  Recent polling, most of which was conducted by the DCCC, shows Peters up between three and nine points.  Knollenberg most likely could have held on, and the race will amost certainly be closer than the DCCC’s polling suggests, had McCain not pulled his people out of Michigan.  Obama’s ground game and Peters’ well-run campaign should put Knollenberg back in private life.

Prediction:  Peters (D) 51% - Knollenberg (R) 48%

New York 25th Congressional District

The retirement of Republican Rep. James Walsh was yet another blow to House Republicans.  Walsh, despite having served as the 25th District’s Congressman for 20 years, only barely held off Democrat Dan Maffei 51-49 in 2006 — after winning 90-10 in 2004.  Republican Dale Sweetland has proved inept at fundraising and uninspiring on the campaign trail.  Maffei should run away with this one.

Prediction: Maffei (D) 61% - Sweetland (R) 39%

New York 29th Congressional District

Republican Rep. Randy Kuhl won in 2006 by a mere six thousand votes, and the man who nearly beat him two years ago, Democrat Eric Massa, is back at it again.  Obama’s strength in New York should carry Massa, who is polling roung eight points ahead of Kuhl, to victory, and yet another Democratic pickup.

Prediction: Massa (D) 55% - Kuhl (R) 45%

Maine Senate

Moderate Republican Susan Collins is popular in Maine, and, despite breaking her promise to serve only two terms, has been running strong all cycle.  Democratic Congressman Tom Allen has never been able to gain traction against Allen, particularly as his signature campaign issue, the War in Iraq, has faded from the headlines.  Collins should win reelection with relative ease.

Prediction: Allen (D) 41% - Collins (R) 58%

New Hampshire Senate

Republican Sen. John Sununu is having a difficult time in New Hampshire.  Despite being a highly respected legislator on both sides of the aisle, it’s simply a bad time to be a Republican in New Hampshire.  Sununu has his hands full with popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen who has been consistently polling about ten points ahead of Sununu.  It looks fairly certain that Sununu will go the way of Lincoln Chaffee, the moderate Republican from Rhode Island who lost to Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse two years ago.

Prediction: Shaheen (D) 54% - Sununu (R) 45%

New Hampshire 1st Congressional District

Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter looked to be in trouble two months ago.  She refused national Democratic money and ran a grassroots homegrown campaign, the same kind of race she ran in 2006 when she upset Jeb Bradley.  Bradley is now running to reclaim his former seat, but the financial crisis changed the dynamic of this race and Shea-Porter has been running strong ever since.  Obama’s ground game, combined with the bump Shea-Porter received in late August, should keep her in the House.

Prediction:  Shea-Porter (D) 52% - Bradley (R) 47%

Connecticut 4th Congressional District

Republican Rep. Christopher Shays is the only remaining Republican Congressman in New England, and the last two cycles have been nailbiters.  By all accounts, this race is as close as they come.  It’s races like these where the little things really come into play.  Sunny, warm weather and the overwhelming lead Obama holds in Connecticut should bring out enough voters to finally loosen Shays’ fingernails from the side of the 4th District.  Democrat Jim Himes has pounded Shays for months, but it’s luck that’ll give him the win.

Prediction:  Himes (D) 50.5% - Shays (R) 49.5%

New Jersey 3rd Congressional District

With yet another Republican retirement, the New Jersey 3rd is primed for yet another Democratic pickup.  Republican Chris Myers had to fight through an expensive primary and was left without much in the way of finances.  Democrat John Adler has seen his numbers rise substantially as the days wound down to Nov. 4th, and Obama’s voter mobilization efforts, which spill over from Pennsylvania into this southern New Jersey district, will give Adler the edge.

Prediction:  Adler (D) 52% - Myers (R) 49%

New Jersey 7th Congressional District

Republican Leonard Lance has been heavily outspent by Democratic opponent Linda Stender in this neck-and-neck race, but neither has been able to gain an advantage.  In a two week period the Lance campaign released a poll showing Lance up by nine points and the DCCC released a campaign showing Stender up nine points.  This is a classic example of a complete tossup race.  I’ll give this one to Lance just to spice things up a bit.

Prediction: Stender (D) 49% - Lance (R) 50%

I predict that Sen. Barack Obama will become the first African-American President of the United States with a final tally of 52% and 356 Electoral Votes to Sen. John McCain’s 45% and 182 Electoral Votes.  Now for a state-by-state breakdown of what I think will happen, including key down-ballot races.

Certain McCain States - 118 Electoral Votes

Texas (34 Electoral Votes)

Louisiana  (9 Electoral Votes)

Mississippi  (6 Electoral Votes)

Alabama  (9 Electoral Votes)

South Carolina  (8 Electoral Votes)

Tennessee  (11 Electoral Votes)

Kentucky  (8 Electoral Votes)

Nebraska  (5 Electoral Votes)

Kansas  (6 Electoral Votes)

Oklahoma  (7 Electoral Votes)

Wyoming  (3 Electoral Votes)

Idaho  (4 Electoral Votes)

Utah  (5 Electoral Votes)

Alaska  (3 Electoral Votes)

Competitive Down Ballot Races in McCain States

Texas 22nd Congressional District

Rep. Nick Lampson made news in 2006 for capturing former Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s seat in the Houston suburbs, aided by the lack of a Republican on the ballot due to DeLay’s resignation.  Republicans ran a nearly successful write-in campaign for candidate Shelly Sekula-Gibbs, whose name may well have cost her the election.  Seukla-Gibbs lost to Lampson 52-42, but Pete Olson, who is challenging Lampson this time around, is a formidable campaigner and will likely unseat the Democrat in one of the very few Republican pickups this cycle.

Prediction:  Lampson (D) 41% - Olson (R) 55%

Louisiana Senate

Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has been widely viewed as the only vulnerable Democratic Senator in this election cycle, and former Louisiana state Treasurer John Kennedy switched parties to challenge her after coming in third to Sen. David Vitter and then-fellow Democrat Chris John in 2004.  Landrieu has never won with more than 52% of the vote, and the mass exodus of largely Democratic voters from New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina was a serious blow.  Kennedy, however, never seemed to gain traction in the race and has been polling well behind Landrieu.  Excitement amongst Louisiana’s black population over the candidacy of Barack Obama should boost Democratic turnout and carry Landrieu to a larger-than-expected victory.

Prediction:  Landrieu (D) 54% - Kennedy (R) 42%

Louisiana 6th Congressional District

Another prime opportunity for House Republicans is Louisiana’s 6th district, home of state capitol Baton Rouge, where incumbent Democrat and Louisiana-sounding-named Don Cazayoux faces Republican Bill Cassidy and African-American Independent Michael Jackson, who Cazayoux defeated in the Democratic primary for both this and the special election.  (No, not that Michael Jackson.)  Cazayoux has only been in the House since June, when he won a special election against an aenemic Republican opponent by only three points.  Recent polling conducted by the Cassidy campaign suggests a close race, with Cazayoux out in front in the high 30’s followed by Cassidy in the mid 30’s and Jackson in the mid-teens.  Only 9.6% of the population here is over 65, which is the demographic most supportive of John McCain, and the average age is a youthful 32.4, with younger voters breaking sharply for Obama.  Sunny, warm weather in Louisiana tomorrow should encourage extremely high turnout and offset the disadvantage Jackson’s campaign causes for Cazayoux.  Cazayoux’s lead in the polls, the demographics of the district, and the impressive $1.8 million raised by Cazayoux (compared with Cassidy’s $214,000) should be enough to keep this seat in Democratic hands.  Early voting numbers out of Louisiana as of Oct. 28 show that 266,880 of the 2.9 million registered voters have voted, 58.5% of whom were Democrats and 28.45% of whom were Republicans.  36.3% of early voters were African-American, notably higher than the 30.4% amongst all registered voters, indicating what will surely be a massive black turnout.  These early voting numbers certainly must be encouraging to Cazayoux, and only bolster his case.

Prediction:  Cazayoux (D) 44% - Cassidy (R) 37% - Jackson (I) - 19%

Louisiana 4th Congressional District

Congressman Jim McCrery’s (R) decision not to run for reelection left this district, which encompasses much of the north-western portion of Louisiana and is home to famed political mind Charlie Cook, a target for Democrats.  Although a conservative-leaning and largely rural portion of Louisiana, the 4th was held by a Democrat, Buddy Roemer, until 1987, when McCrery, a former Roemer aide, took over.  President Bush won nearly 60% of the vote here in 2004, but Sen. Landrieu carried the district in 2002 and then-Governor Kathleen Blanco, also a Democrat, won in 2003.  The closed Republican primary here has been a highly contentious between attorney Jeff Thompson, coroner John Fleming, and businessman Chris Gorman.  Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche, the leading candidate for the Democrats, is cruising towards victory in a relatively low-key race against retired Army officer Willie Banks, and should not face a third-party candidate like Cazayoux is in the 6th.  The election tomorrow here is actually the runoff for the final vote, which will be held on Dec. 6th.  The election was moved back due to hurricane damage in the region, as was the vote in the 2nd District, which is home to New Orleans.  If Carmouche comes out the victor on the Democratic side, as he should, he will face a substantially weakened Republican foe.  If Obama comes out the winner in the Presidential contest dissapointed Republicans could fail to turn out to vote in December, which would greatly benefit Carmouche.  Assuming Obama does win tomorrow, and Landrieu is also re-elected, Carmouche could very well pull an upset here.

Prediction:  Carmouche (D) 48% - Fleming/Gorman/Thompson (R) 46%

Mississippi Senate Special Election

This race, to succeed the retired Trent Lott for his remaining four years, has become unexpectedly close in recent weeks.  Republican Roger Wicker was appointed by Gov. Haley Barbour to fill the seat in 2007 when Lott resigned, having formerly represented the 1st Congressional District.  Democrat Ronnie Musgrove has previously served as Lt. Governor, winning twice in 1995 and 1999.  Wicker’s former home, the 1st District, went Democratic in the special election which replaced him this past June after awarding 64% of the vote to President Bush in 2004, foreshadowing, perhaps, the competative race to follow.  Wicker suffered initially from name recognition problems, being known primarily only to his former constituents in the 1st District.  He has since made up that deficit in a campaign somewhat reminiscent of North Carolina’s 2004 race, where former White House Chief-of-Staff and 2002 candidate faced off with former 5th District Rep. Richard Burr.  Burr overcame the name recognition problems in the final weeks of the campaign and finished five points ahead of Bowles despite polling showing him even at the finish.  The five point difference was generally attributed to George Bush’s coattails, which were certainly more beneficial four years ago.  There could be something of the reverse effect this year, however, with Sen. Barack Obama’s candidacy bringing out a very high percentage of the black vote in Mississippi, which makes up 36% of the state’s population.  Sunny weather on Tuesday, the large lead McCain enjoys in the state, and the extreme non-competitiveness of the other Senate race here (where Sen. Thad Cochran is 20+ points ahead of Democrat Erik Fleming) may have the effect of bolstering Democratic turnout while suppressing Republican GOTV efforts.  Research 2000 recently conducted polling in which 16 percent of their sample had voted early.  Among those voters, Musgrove led Wicker 53% to 47%.  Overall, the poll found that 51% supported Wicker while 44% supported Musgrove.  This six-point spread may well prove insurmountable for Musgrove, although I believe the numbers will narrow significantly when all is said and done.

Prediction:  Roger Wicker (R) 50% - Ronnie Musgrove (D) - 48%

Mississippi 1st Congressional District

This district, formerly represented by the afore mentioned Roger Wicker, went Democratic in the special election held to replace Wicker after he was appointed to the Senate.  Travis Childers, the winner of that election, is being challenged by the man he beat in June, Republican Greg Davis.  This is a conservative district, and will certainly break for Wicker and McCain.  Davis’ campaign has attempted to do the same thing it did in the special election — paint Childers as a pawn of more liberal Democrats in the House and Senate.  That strategy didn’t succeed in June, when Childers won handily 54-46, and it’s not likely it will work again.

Prediction:  Childers (D) 52% - Davis (R) 48%

Alabama 2nd Congressional District

The retirement of Rep. Terry Everett provides Democrats with an opportunity to pick up a seat in this very conservative region of Alabama.  Everett ran around 70% in each of his last three races in this district, but the Democratic victories in runoff elections in similar districts, some of which I mentioned previously, demonstrates the vulnerability of Republicans in even very conservative districts without a popular incumbent to rely upon.  Polling in the 2nd has been erratic at best, with two polls in August showing Democrat Bobby Bright, mayor of Montgomery, ten points ahead of State Rep. Jay Love, and a second poll showing Love ahead by 18.  The most recent poll, taken in late October, shows Love with a two-point lead.  That’s very close considering the nature of the electorate here, where Bush won with 67% in 2004.  This is truly a toss-up race, but the Democrats can’t win them all, so I’ll give this one to Love.

Prediction: Bright (D) 47% - Love (R) 53%

Alabama 5th Congressional District

The retirement of Rep. Bud Cramer provides the Republicans a rare opportunity to pick up a seat.  This conservative district gave 60% to Bush in 2004, a substantial margin, but Cramer outperformed Bush here by garnering 73%, while his Republican opponent only pulled 27% — less, even, than John Kerry’s 39%.  Surprisingly, the 5th District has never elected a Republican to congress, and Republican Wayne Parker seems unlikely to change that.  Democrat Parker Griffith should be able to ride Cramer’s legacy, and a strong black turnout, to Congress.

Prediction: Griffith (D) 56% - Parker (R) 44%

South Carolina 1st Congressional District

Republican Rep. Henry Brown is used to winning big since he went to Congress in 2000, winning in 2002 with 89% and in 2004 with 88%.  In 2006, however, his numbers dropped significantly - to 60%.  Facing a solid Democratic challenger for the first time in businesswoman Linda Ketner, Brown could be in trouble.  The 1st District is 21% black and the Obama campaign has been running ads in South Carolina.  High black turnout could turn this race against Brown.  Ketner was only five points down in late October.  I predict an upset.

Prediction:  Ketner (D) 50% - Brown (R) 49%

Kentucky Senate

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is in a surprisingly tough fight against the resurgent Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, who twice ran and lost in gubernatorial primaries.  Recent polling shows McConnell with a five point advantage over Lunsford with nine percent undecided.  For such a large number of voters to be undecided on a long-term Republican Senator from a solidly red state, who is the leader of his party in the Senate to boot, is a bad sign.  Lunsford hasn’t run a spectacular race, but a large turnout in Lexington and Louisville could put him over the top.

Prediction: Lunsford (D) 49% - McConnell (R) 48%

Kentucky 3rd Congressional District

Democrat John Yarmouth won this District from Republican Anne Northrup in 2006, a cycle which saw Northrup on the sidelines for two months after the death of her son.  This year she’s attempting to reclaim her seat, but Yarmouth has already solidified his hold on the district and is consistently polling up over 10 points.

Prediction: Yarmouth (D) 56% - Northrup (R) 44%

Kansas 2nd Congressional District

Democrat Nancy Boyda, who lost to former Rep. Jim Ryun in 2004 before edging into Congress with a four point win in 2006, faces Kansas state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, who narrowly defeated Ryun in the Republican primary in early August.  Boyda has refused DNC and DCCC money in the race, because, one would assume, that would tie her to national Democrats.  Unfortunately, that also left her without much money to run a campaign with.  Late August polling showed Boyda with a five-point lead, but considering how quickly Ryun backed down following his primary loss Jenkins has almost certainly made significant gains since.  Boyda would have been better off listening to DCCC chair Rahm Emmanuel.

Prediction: Boyda (D) 48% - Jenkins (R) 52%

Wyoming At-Large House Seat

The retirement of Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin, who swept to office in the 1994 Republican tsunami, opened the door for Democrat Gary Trauner to try his hand again.  He ran against Cubin in 2006, eventually losing in one of the closest races in the country: 1,012 votes.  He immediately threw his hat back in the ring, and is now facing Cynthia Lummis.  Name recognition was inititally an advantage for Trauner, but his lead in polling evaporated by mid-October.  In Trauner’s favor is the fact that much of Wyoming will be seeing rain tomorrow, which is likely to lower Republican turnout in the face of an expected landslide for McCain there.  I predict a lucky break for Trauner.

Prediction: Trauner (D) 49% - Lummis (R) 48%

Idaho 1st Congressional District

Republican Congressman Bill Sali is in hot water in what should have been a safe Republican seat after a number of slipups and an aggressive fundraising effort by Democratic challenger Walt Minnick.  Sali may have lost his seat when he said that, “There are people out there without health care, and we need to address that, but it’s not as big of a problem as some people would make it out to be.”  Not the best move.  October polling showed Minnick up between six and seven points, and there’s no reason to believe those numbers have shifted.  Sali doesn’t hold on to his seat unless undecideds break for him nine-to-one, an unlikely prospect to be sure.

Prediction:  Minnick (D) 53% - Sali (R) 47%

Alaska At-Large House Seat

Republican Rep. Don Young had his party in fits when he won the primary by a mere 304 votes.  Why, you may ask?  Because Young has been embroiled in an FBI corruption investigation, amongst other things.  After 17 terms as Alaska’s congressman, Young has virtually no shot at holding on to his seat.  Polling has consistently shown Democrat Ethan Berkowitz aroung ten points up.  This seat looks to go Democratic for the first time since Young won it in 1972.

Prediction: Berkowitz (D) 55% - Young (R) 44%

Alaska Senate

To those of you following the news, the name Ted Stevens may sound familiar.  That’s because Sen. Stevens was recently found guilty of seven counts of lying on financial disclosure forms, which is a felony.  Democratic challenger Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage, was running even with Stevens even before his trail wrapped up on Oct. 27.  A Research 2000 poll conducted between Oct. 14 and 16, before the verdict was announced, found Begich with a two-point lead.  When they conducted the poll again, between the 28th and 30th, Begich had a 22 point lead.  All of the sudden, Mark Begich is looking like Mark Warner.  I hope you enjoy the Senate, Mr. Begich.

Prediction: Begich (D) 58% - Stevens (R) 42%

PART TWO

The verdict was announced just after 4 p.m. in a packed courtroom in U.S. District Court in Washington. Stevens (R) sat quietly as the jury foreman said the panel had reached a unanimous decision and found Stevens guilty on all seven counts of filing false financial disclosure forms.

Jurors, who re-started their deliberations at 9:30 a.m. today when a juror was replaced by an alternate, were somber as they walked into the courtroom to deliver the verdict and did not look at Stevens. No sentencing date has been set, and Stevens’s attorneys are expected to file motions seeking to have the verdict set aside.

It is certainly too soon to determine what effect this will have on Stevens’ reelection race in Alaska, here he is running almost even with Anchorage mayor Mark Begich, but it is probably a safe bet to say that Stevens’ conviction puts a victory much farther out of his grasp.

You compare Bill Clinton’s peccadilloes for which he was impeached to George Bush’s high crimes and misdemeanors or Dick Cheney’s high crimes and misdemeanors, and I think they pale in significance.

I am not at all surprised by Wilkerson’s comments, or his (albeit reticent) endorsement of Obama.  In all of my discussions with him, Col. Wilkerson had difficulty masking his resentment towards the Bush administration, over the War in Iraq in particular.  There is little question that the Iraq issue, most notably Secretary Powell’s now infamous address before the United Nations pressing the case for war, sullied Powell’s reputation.  Though Powell and Wilkerson had a very public break when Wilkerson came out strongly in the press against the conduct of the Iraq War, Wilkerson’s respect for his former boss is palpable and he no doubt feels some resentment towards Sen. McCain, who has been a very vocal supporter of the conflict, for playing a role in the tarnishing of the Powell’s legacy.

Nevertheless, Wilkerson stated that his primary dissatisfaction with McCain came not from his days in the State Department, but rather from the McCain campaign itself.  Said Wilkerson,

McCain, who in the course of his senate career was never too corrupted by the process, has run a campaign that proves he wants so badly to win the Oval Office that he was willing [to] sacrifice his integrity and character and found himself in the thrall of vested interest.

This may sound stupid, but to delve deeper here can be both beneficial and pleasurable.  Let’s take a look at that sign.  Beyond being an absurd and inconsequential piece of flotsam from the paternalistic society that brought you D.A.R.E. and Sarah Palin, it’s just plain problematic.  It’s problematic from many standpoints; from semiotics to that greased whore of logic: reverse psychology.  Ok, so,

No Candy at this Residence

Now, I grew up in a rich neighborhood where most children were either diabetic or ruled by quasi-fascist health nuts.  Because of this, candy wasn’t the gold standard of Halloween as much of a consolation prize.  Quite simply, we were in it for the benjamins.  Who cares about candy, anyway?  You can just buy that at school.  We were after two-dollar bills.  To equate Halloween with candy alone is short-sighted, demeaning, and just plain wrong.  Perhaps we can change it to “No Treat,” or perhaps “No Reward,” or maybe, if you want to be an asshole, “No Symbolic Gesture of the Commodification of Childhood Rituals in Residence.”  The last one is the most critically sound, but it contains so many big words that the little ones would have to climb onto the porch and press their virginal faces up against the glass in order to read it; problematic in that they surely would promptly be grabbed and molested.

Then there is the question of the word “residence.”  Residence, I’m sure we all have seen by now, is a big word.  And like many big words, it will soar over the heads of children like so many fly balls.  It also exposes a disparity between stated and intended meaning.  It needs to be changed.  One doesn’t want to trick or treat at a residence.  No, only a home will do.  However, it would be quite to the jump to say that these paroled pederasts live in a home.  A home implies love, truth, and commitment to the community.  Recently deceased Dione Warwick had it right with “A House is not a Home.”  And neither is a residence.  One more thing, are there actually any more homes in Maryland?  Last I checked, a home required a homeowner, and what with the mortgage crisis being what it is…

So our new, better sign should read:

No Treats in Home

It’s clear, to the point, and even the slowest trick-or-treaters should get the message.  But in providing clarity for the children’s developing minds, Maryland has opened the stupidest Pandora’s box of all: child psychology.  Children are fascinated with the idea of negation.  Given the prevalence of Opposite Day, “No Treats in Home” seems like nothing more than a dangerous exercise in reverse psychology.  If you were a 5th grader confronted with a darkened house and a sign explicitly stating that there was N-O, no, definitely not any candy within, what would you honestly do?  Exactly.  You would sneak in and take a look-see.

In the beginning there was Radio. The great people of this nation were expected to entertain themselves with it, but this proved impossible because of the precipitous collapse of Cuba Gooding Jr.’s career.  Fortunately, in 1928, inventor and Mormon Philo Farnsworth created the first working television.  That same year, Chester “Howlin’ Wolf” Burnett took up playing guitar and the music video was born.  Today, October 18, 2008, marks the 80th anniversary of the fifth public demonstration of the television conducted by Farnsworth.  By all accounts this was the best demonstration to that point because the first episode of “The Simpsons” debuted.  To celebrate this historic anniversary, A Talking Ed will be publishing a series on the greatest music videos of all time, to celebrate the anniversary of the beginning of the end of western civilization.  With no further ado, Episode One, Part One, Chapter One of The Greatest Music Videos of All Time!

Biz Markie - Just A Friend

A Critical Analysis

“Have you ever met a girl that you tried to date
But a year to make love she wanted you to wait.”

The opening lines of the Biz Markie opus “Just a Friend” are timeless.  One can find an echo of this sentiment reverberating throughout the annals of human civilization.  Take, for example, Robert Herrick’s 1648 poem “To the Vigrins, to Make Much of Time”.  This charming bit of verse is often misinterpreted by 16 year old literary scholars as being a traditional love poem, but a closer reading reveals another layer of meaning:

Gather ye rosebuds while ye may,
Old Time is still a-flying:
And this same flower that smiles today
To-morrow will be dying.
The glorious lamp of heaven, the sun,
The higher he’s a-getting,
The sooner will his race be run,
And nearer he’s to setting.
That age is best which is the first,
When youth and blood are warmer;
But being spent, the worse, and worst
Times still succeed the former.
Then be not coy, but use your time,
And while ye may, go marry:
For having lost but once your prime,
You may for ever tarry.

Herrick, in saying that “this same flower that smiles today/ To-morrow will be dying” is describing the fleeting nature of youth and beauty, and goes on to declare the necessity of collecting on that beauty by, as they say, gettin’ it while the gettin’s good.  Recently, this mentality has come under fire, with films such as the recent biopic of Henry Kissinger, “The 40 Year Old Virgin”, glorifying the celibate youth.  Such examples continue to be rare, however, indicating the sturdiness of Herrick and Markie’s ideals.

The video itself pays great tribute to the brilliance of the source material, upending many traditional beliefs about the role of gender in society and of African Americans in the media.  The premise of the song, and also of the video, involves a woman Biz Markie is romantically involved with.  The woman, to whom he devotes himself entirely, engages in a dalliance with a man she claims is the titular “friend”, but who is, in fact, all up in that.  Told in the fashion of a “play within a play”, an homage, perhaps, to “The Murder of Gonzago” put on in Franco Zeffirelli’s unforgettable story of love, madness, and Mel Gibson, “Hamlet”, the video begins and ends with Biz Markie cavorting with a gang of toughs in an inner-city neighborhood.  In start contrast to the romantic and dedicated Biz Markie of the operatic portion of the video, the narrative Biz Markie is cold, jaded, and find no appeal in the trickster machinations of the women he finds on the sidewalks of this veritable urban jungle.  The hunter, it would seem, tasted spoilt meat, and has lost his appetite.  The richest portions of the “Just A Friend” experience are found in the story of this condition’s origin.

The story begins with Biz Markie and the unnamed woman, known only as “blah-blah-blah”, meeting at a concert.  A romance begins to blossom between the two.  According to Biz Markie:

“So we started talkin, getttin familiar
Spendin a lot of time so we can build up
A relationship or some understanding
How its gonna be in the future we was plannin.”

Quite apart from the traditional gender ascribed inter-relationship roles, Biz Markie displays none of the characteristics often ascribed to inner-city black youth.  By his own admission, Markie is attempting to develop “understanding,” a “relationship,” and “the future.”  The traditional role of the male has been ascribed to the unnamed woman in this video; namely, this role entails infidelity, dishonesty, and a somewhat philandering and misleading character.  Does this indicate a rejection of the typically assigned role, or an attempt to ascribe negative images and fears of the self onto an “other” as a form of ritualistic internal conflict resolution?  Only Biz Markie can say for sure.  He is, however, quite explicit in his treatment of the role of the strong African American man in today’s media-driven society.

Part way through the video, in what is certainly one of the most poignant and memorable scenes ever put to celluloid,  Biz Markie appears in late-18th century European regalia, not dissimilar to what would have been worn by Mozart or Beethoven.  The ensemble is entirely white, as is the wig, and stands in sharp contrast to the dark, candle-lit room and gleaming black piano.  Biz Markie is certainly not equivocating in his stance.  Standing, pounding on the keys with joyful abandon, Markie makes clear to us all that the musical antecedents of the West have been fully assimilated into, and even improved upon by, African American musical movements.  It is truly a stunning endorsement of equality, a brilliant proclamation of egalitarianism, that will surely reverberate over the coming generations.  Biz Markie may well be remembered as a latter-day Olaudah Equiano.

An interesting, yet much more subtle, element to the video is the repeated employment of humor and wit in the opening and closing segments.  The video opens with Biz Markie and the toughs engaging in an exchange of the fabled “yo’ mama” jokes.  This vignette, naturally, demands explanation.  Why is this group of toughs in such jolly spirits?  One rarely sees the impoverished and bellicose in such chipper spirits.  What reason would they have to joke and carry on like this?  There is only one reasonable answer, excluding possible substance abuse, and that is a taking to heart of the old addage that it is better to laugh than cry.  Clearly, these men are so distraught by their circumstances, the nature of their relationships, the gaps in the welfare state, and so forth, that such joking is the only means of getting through the day.  Truly, this video is as full of tragedy, brilliantly and subtly illustrated, as any other.

In short, Biz Markie’s “Just A Friend” is a truly revolutionary video.  Combining a sharp eye for social commentary and a gleeful, bleating voice, Biz Markie has provided an example to all of what smart, crisp filmmaking can accomplish.  And now, with no further ado, the video:

[

YouTube Directvideo link

This came in the wake of a discussion about the anti-Americanism of Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.  Oddly enough, it was not very long ago that Congresswoman Bachmann stated to the AP that “If the presidency would somehow go to Barack Obama, I would welcome him to the 6th District as well.  As a matter of fact, I would put my hand on his shoulder and give him a kiss if he wanted to.”  That, of course, a reference to the infamous incident on the floor of the House following George W. Bush’s most recent State of the Union speech when she became very physical with the President.

The statements made by Rep. Bachmann immediately led to a comparison to the late anti-communist crusader Sen. Joe McCarthy.  Bachmann’s comments are interestingly timed, as her re-election race has been narrowing lately, and it would seem appropriate to deem these statements as the highly charged rhetoric of a politician clawing to preserve their office.  While that may explain Rep. Bachmann’s statement, it does not excuse it.  To call any member of the United States House or Senate unpatriotic is wildly absurd.  What is unpatriotic about wading through such theatrical absurdity as this (such statements being the perpetual product of politicians in October), grueling hours on the campaign trail, the constant scrutiny of friends, family, and self, only to, at the end of it, join the body that continually grapples with the most difficult questions in the world?  No sane person would subject themselves to a campaign if they didn’t care about this country and the people who inhabit it.  Of course, the argument can be made that some of the candidates for and members of the Congress are not sane.  If that is the case, I would include Michele Bachmann in that demographic.