In less than 24 hours the polls will open in what is surely the most historic election of my lifetime.  With this wild and unpredictable campaign drawing to a close, it’s time for me to take a shot at what I think will happen tomorrow.

I predict that Sen. Barack Obama will become the first African-American President of the United States with a final tally of 52% and 356 Electoral Votes to Sen. John McCain’s 45% and 182 Electoral Votes.  Now for a state-by-state breakdown of what I think will happen, including key down-ballot races.

Certain Obama States - 228 Electoral Votes

Washington (11 Electoral Votes)

Oregon (7 Electoral Votes)

California (55 Electoral Votes)

Hawaii (4 Electoral Votes)

Iowa (7 Electoral Votes)

Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)

Illinois (21 Electoral Votes)

Michigan (17 Electoral Votes)

New York (31 Electoral Votes)

Maine (4 Electoral Votes)

Vermont (3 Electoral Votes)

New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes)

Maryland (10 Electoral Votes)

Rhode Island (4 Electoral Votes)

Connecticut (7 Electoral Votes)

New Jersey (15 Electoral Votes)

Delaware (3 Electoral Votes)

Massachusetts (12 Electoral Votes)

District of Columbia (3 Electoral Votes)

Competitive Down Ballot Races in Obama States

Washington 8th Congressional District

Congressman Dave Reichert finds himself in a situation common to Republican incumbents this cycle.  I believe they’ve had some jackets made.  Reichert is a popular incumbent and a savvy politician, but he may just find himself out of work in January because of the widespread dissatisfaction with his party.  Polling through early October showed Reichert with a lead between six and eight points over Democrat Darcy Burner, who was a mere two points from unseating Reichert in 2006.  The two most recent polls, however, show Burner with a lead of four and the two tied at 46% each.  Burner has done an excellent job fundraising this cycle, and Reichert is going to have a hard time getting out his voters in enough numbers to push back against the Obama campaign’s voter mobilization efforts.  Obama’s momentum in Washington, combined with the Democrat’s tremendous ground game, should put Burner over the top against Reichert, who has yet to garner more than 52% in these Seattle suburbs.

Prediction:  Burner (D) 51% - Reichert (R) 49%

Oregon Senate

Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has been fighting against the prevailing political wins, a low approval rating, and a state that has been trending strongly Democratic in recent cycles.  State House Speaker Jeff Merkley is looking to benefit from the Democratic lean here, and all recent polling would indicate he is well positioned to cash in.  With Merkley’s numbers hovering just short of 50% and Smith stuck in the mid and low 40’s, it is a near certainty that Merkley will ride Obama’s coattails into the Senate.

Prediction: Merkley (D) 53% - Smith (R) 46%

California 4th Congressional District

Rep. John Doolittle’s retirement kept this race close.  After being mixed up in the Jack Abramoff embroglio, Doolittle had no choice but to retire.  After the story broke, but before any investigation had gotten into full swing, Doolittle squeaked past comically named Democrat Charlie Brown 49-46 in 2006.  Brown is running again, this time against State Senator Tom McClintock, who doesn’t actually live within 400 miles of the district.  Polling has Brown up half a dozen points, and Brown should also ride Obama’s powerful lead in California to victory.

Prediction: Brown (D) 54% - McClintock (R) 45%

Wisconsin 8th Congressional District

Democratic Congressman Steve Kagen only barely got by Republican John Gard in 2006, winning with 51% of the vote to Gard’s 49%.  Kagen, sitting in a center-right district, has made things worse for himself with a number of damaging gaffes, including an ill-advised swipe at Laura Bush.  Nonetheless, Kagen has found himself well up in the polls, and apparently the people of the 8th District are willing to give him a pass.

Prediction: Kagen (D) 56% - Gard (R) 44%

Illinois 11th Congressional District

Republican Congressman Jerry Weller is yet another veteran of the 1994 election who has decided to hang it up this year, and Republicans seem unlikely to hold on to this district given that the winner of the Republican primary has dropped out.  Republican Martin Ozinga has given Democrat Debbie Halvorson a run for her money, but Halvorson has been up over 10 points in the polls and Ozinga doesn’t seem to have much of a chance in the face of what will certainly be massive turnout to support home state candidate Barack Obama.

Prediction:  Halvorson (D) 56% - Ozinga (R) 43%

Illinois 10th Congressional District

Republican Mark Kirk beat Democratic challenger Dan Seals by four points in 2006, and the rematch has all the makings of another close race.  Kirk managed to win with 64% of the vote in a district that gave John Kerry a six point victory in 2004.  Unfortunately for him, Obama’s coattails in the Chicago suburbs that make up the 10th District are as long as anywhere, and polls since the credit crisis have punished Kirk.

Prediction: Seals (D) 53% - Kirk (R) 46%

Michigan 7th Congressional District

Republican Rep. Tim Walberg is embroiled in another rematch campaign with Democrat Mark Schauer, who Walberg beat out by four points in 2006.  Walberg beat out more moderate Rep. Joe Schwartz in the 2006 Republican primary.  Schauer ran against Schwartz in 2004 and lost 58-36.  2006 saw a six-point increase for Schauer and a ten point drop on the Republican side of the ballot, evidence that Walberg is a shade too conservative for this district.  Running almost neck-and-neck in August, the financial crisis, coupled with McCain’s pullout from Michigan several weeks ago, should give Schauer the edge.  Third time’s a charm!

Prediction:  Schauer (D) 54% - Walberg (R) 45%

Michigan 9th Congressional District

Republican Rep. Joe Knollenberg has been re-elected eight times, but most recently, in 2006, he only came out with 52% of the vote.  Democrat Gary Peters was a very successful fundraiser, and has done everything necessary to compete in this district.  Recent polling, most of which was conducted by the DCCC, shows Peters up between three and nine points.  Knollenberg most likely could have held on, and the race will amost certainly be closer than the DCCC’s polling suggests, had McCain not pulled his people out of Michigan.  Obama’s ground game and Peters’ well-run campaign should put Knollenberg back in private life.

Prediction:  Peters (D) 51% - Knollenberg (R) 48%

New York 25th Congressional District

The retirement of Republican Rep. James Walsh was yet another blow to House Republicans.  Walsh, despite having served as the 25th District’s Congressman for 20 years, only barely held off Democrat Dan Maffei 51-49 in 2006 — after winning 90-10 in 2004.  Republican Dale Sweetland has proved inept at fundraising and uninspiring on the campaign trail.  Maffei should run away with this one.

Prediction: Maffei (D) 61% - Sweetland (R) 39%

New York 29th Congressional District

Republican Rep. Randy Kuhl won in 2006 by a mere six thousand votes, and the man who nearly beat him two years ago, Democrat Eric Massa, is back at it again.  Obama’s strength in New York should carry Massa, who is polling roung eight points ahead of Kuhl, to victory, and yet another Democratic pickup.

Prediction: Massa (D) 55% - Kuhl (R) 45%

Maine Senate

Moderate Republican Susan Collins is popular in Maine, and, despite breaking her promise to serve only two terms, has been running strong all cycle.  Democratic Congressman Tom Allen has never been able to gain traction against Allen, particularly as his signature campaign issue, the War in Iraq, has faded from the headlines.  Collins should win reelection with relative ease.

Prediction: Allen (D) 41% - Collins (R) 58%

New Hampshire Senate

Republican Sen. John Sununu is having a difficult time in New Hampshire.  Despite being a highly respected legislator on both sides of the aisle, it’s simply a bad time to be a Republican in New Hampshire.  Sununu has his hands full with popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen who has been consistently polling about ten points ahead of Sununu.  It looks fairly certain that Sununu will go the way of Lincoln Chaffee, the moderate Republican from Rhode Island who lost to Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse two years ago.

Prediction: Shaheen (D) 54% - Sununu (R) 45%

New Hampshire 1st Congressional District

Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter looked to be in trouble two months ago.  She refused national Democratic money and ran a grassroots homegrown campaign, the same kind of race she ran in 2006 when she upset Jeb Bradley.  Bradley is now running to reclaim his former seat, but the financial crisis changed the dynamic of this race and Shea-Porter has been running strong ever since.  Obama’s ground game, combined with the bump Shea-Porter received in late August, should keep her in the House.

Prediction:  Shea-Porter (D) 52% - Bradley (R) 47%

Connecticut 4th Congressional District

Republican Rep. Christopher Shays is the only remaining Republican Congressman in New England, and the last two cycles have been nailbiters.  By all accounts, this race is as close as they come.  It’s races like these where the little things really come into play.  Sunny, warm weather and the overwhelming lead Obama holds in Connecticut should bring out enough voters to finally loosen Shays’ fingernails from the side of the 4th District.  Democrat Jim Himes has pounded Shays for months, but it’s luck that’ll give him the win.

Prediction:  Himes (D) 50.5% - Shays (R) 49.5%

New Jersey 3rd Congressional District

With yet another Republican retirement, the New Jersey 3rd is primed for yet another Democratic pickup.  Republican Chris Myers had to fight through an expensive primary and was left without much in the way of finances.  Democrat John Adler has seen his numbers rise substantially as the days wound down to Nov. 4th, and Obama’s voter mobilization efforts, which spill over from Pennsylvania into this southern New Jersey district, will give Adler the edge.

Prediction:  Adler (D) 52% - Myers (R) 49%

New Jersey 7th Congressional District

Republican Leonard Lance has been heavily outspent by Democratic opponent Linda Stender in this neck-and-neck race, but neither has been able to gain an advantage.  In a two week period the Lance campaign released a poll showing Lance up by nine points and the DCCC released a campaign showing Stender up nine points.  This is a classic example of a complete tossup race.  I’ll give this one to Lance just to spice things up a bit.

Prediction: Stender (D) 49% - Lance (R) 50%

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