In less than 24 hours the polls will open in what is surely the most historic election of my lifetime.  With this wild and unpredictable campaign drawing to a close, it’s time for me to take a shot at what I think will happen tomorrow.

I predict that Sen. Barack Obama will become the first African-American President of the United States with a final tally of 52% and 356 Electoral Votes to Sen. John McCain’s 45% and 182 Electoral Votes.  Now for a state-by-state breakdown of what I think will happen, including key down-ballot races.

Certain McCain States - 118 Electoral Votes

Texas (34 Electoral Votes)

Louisiana  (9 Electoral Votes)

Mississippi  (6 Electoral Votes)

Alabama  (9 Electoral Votes)

South Carolina  (8 Electoral Votes)

Tennessee  (11 Electoral Votes)

Kentucky  (8 Electoral Votes)

Nebraska  (5 Electoral Votes)

Kansas  (6 Electoral Votes)

Oklahoma  (7 Electoral Votes)

Wyoming  (3 Electoral Votes)

Idaho  (4 Electoral Votes)

Utah  (5 Electoral Votes)

Alaska  (3 Electoral Votes)

Competitive Down Ballot Races in McCain States

Texas 22nd Congressional District

Rep. Nick Lampson made news in 2006 for capturing former Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s seat in the Houston suburbs, aided by the lack of a Republican on the ballot due to DeLay’s resignation.  Republicans ran a nearly successful write-in campaign for candidate Shelly Sekula-Gibbs, whose name may well have cost her the election.  Seukla-Gibbs lost to Lampson 52-42, but Pete Olson, who is challenging Lampson this time around, is a formidable campaigner and will likely unseat the Democrat in one of the very few Republican pickups this cycle.

Prediction:  Lampson (D) 41% - Olson (R) 55%

Louisiana Senate

Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has been widely viewed as the only vulnerable Democratic Senator in this election cycle, and former Louisiana state Treasurer John Kennedy switched parties to challenge her after coming in third to Sen. David Vitter and then-fellow Democrat Chris John in 2004.  Landrieu has never won with more than 52% of the vote, and the mass exodus of largely Democratic voters from New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina was a serious blow.  Kennedy, however, never seemed to gain traction in the race and has been polling well behind Landrieu.  Excitement amongst Louisiana’s black population over the candidacy of Barack Obama should boost Democratic turnout and carry Landrieu to a larger-than-expected victory.

Prediction:  Landrieu (D) 54% - Kennedy (R) 42%

Louisiana 6th Congressional District

Another prime opportunity for House Republicans is Louisiana’s 6th district, home of state capitol Baton Rouge, where incumbent Democrat and Louisiana-sounding-named Don Cazayoux faces Republican Bill Cassidy and African-American Independent Michael Jackson, who Cazayoux defeated in the Democratic primary for both this and the special election.  (No, not that Michael Jackson.)  Cazayoux has only been in the House since June, when he won a special election against an aenemic Republican opponent by only three points.  Recent polling conducted by the Cassidy campaign suggests a close race, with Cazayoux out in front in the high 30’s followed by Cassidy in the mid 30’s and Jackson in the mid-teens.  Only 9.6% of the population here is over 65, which is the demographic most supportive of John McCain, and the average age is a youthful 32.4, with younger voters breaking sharply for Obama.  Sunny, warm weather in Louisiana tomorrow should encourage extremely high turnout and offset the disadvantage Jackson’s campaign causes for Cazayoux.  Cazayoux’s lead in the polls, the demographics of the district, and the impressive $1.8 million raised by Cazayoux (compared with Cassidy’s $214,000) should be enough to keep this seat in Democratic hands.  Early voting numbers out of Louisiana as of Oct. 28 show that 266,880 of the 2.9 million registered voters have voted, 58.5% of whom were Democrats and 28.45% of whom were Republicans.  36.3% of early voters were African-American, notably higher than the 30.4% amongst all registered voters, indicating what will surely be a massive black turnout.  These early voting numbers certainly must be encouraging to Cazayoux, and only bolster his case.

Prediction:  Cazayoux (D) 44% - Cassidy (R) 37% - Jackson (I) - 19%

Louisiana 4th Congressional District

Congressman Jim McCrery’s (R) decision not to run for reelection left this district, which encompasses much of the north-western portion of Louisiana and is home to famed political mind Charlie Cook, a target for Democrats.  Although a conservative-leaning and largely rural portion of Louisiana, the 4th was held by a Democrat, Buddy Roemer, until 1987, when McCrery, a former Roemer aide, took over.  President Bush won nearly 60% of the vote here in 2004, but Sen. Landrieu carried the district in 2002 and then-Governor Kathleen Blanco, also a Democrat, won in 2003.  The closed Republican primary here has been a highly contentious between attorney Jeff Thompson, coroner John Fleming, and businessman Chris Gorman.  Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche, the leading candidate for the Democrats, is cruising towards victory in a relatively low-key race against retired Army officer Willie Banks, and should not face a third-party candidate like Cazayoux is in the 6th.  The election tomorrow here is actually the runoff for the final vote, which will be held on Dec. 6th.  The election was moved back due to hurricane damage in the region, as was the vote in the 2nd District, which is home to New Orleans.  If Carmouche comes out the victor on the Democratic side, as he should, he will face a substantially weakened Republican foe.  If Obama comes out the winner in the Presidential contest dissapointed Republicans could fail to turn out to vote in December, which would greatly benefit Carmouche.  Assuming Obama does win tomorrow, and Landrieu is also re-elected, Carmouche could very well pull an upset here.

Prediction:  Carmouche (D) 48% - Fleming/Gorman/Thompson (R) 46%

Mississippi Senate Special Election

This race, to succeed the retired Trent Lott for his remaining four years, has become unexpectedly close in recent weeks.  Republican Roger Wicker was appointed by Gov. Haley Barbour to fill the seat in 2007 when Lott resigned, having formerly represented the 1st Congressional District.  Democrat Ronnie Musgrove has previously served as Lt. Governor, winning twice in 1995 and 1999.  Wicker’s former home, the 1st District, went Democratic in the special election which replaced him this past June after awarding 64% of the vote to President Bush in 2004, foreshadowing, perhaps, the competative race to follow.  Wicker suffered initially from name recognition problems, being known primarily only to his former constituents in the 1st District.  He has since made up that deficit in a campaign somewhat reminiscent of North Carolina’s 2004 race, where former White House Chief-of-Staff and 2002 candidate faced off with former 5th District Rep. Richard Burr.  Burr overcame the name recognition problems in the final weeks of the campaign and finished five points ahead of Bowles despite polling showing him even at the finish.  The five point difference was generally attributed to George Bush’s coattails, which were certainly more beneficial four years ago.  There could be something of the reverse effect this year, however, with Sen. Barack Obama’s candidacy bringing out a very high percentage of the black vote in Mississippi, which makes up 36% of the state’s population.  Sunny weather on Tuesday, the large lead McCain enjoys in the state, and the extreme non-competitiveness of the other Senate race here (where Sen. Thad Cochran is 20+ points ahead of Democrat Erik Fleming) may have the effect of bolstering Democratic turnout while suppressing Republican GOTV efforts.  Research 2000 recently conducted polling in which 16 percent of their sample had voted early.  Among those voters, Musgrove led Wicker 53% to 47%.  Overall, the poll found that 51% supported Wicker while 44% supported Musgrove.  This six-point spread may well prove insurmountable for Musgrove, although I believe the numbers will narrow significantly when all is said and done.

Prediction:  Roger Wicker (R) 50% - Ronnie Musgrove (D) - 48%

Mississippi 1st Congressional District

This district, formerly represented by the afore mentioned Roger Wicker, went Democratic in the special election held to replace Wicker after he was appointed to the Senate.  Travis Childers, the winner of that election, is being challenged by the man he beat in June, Republican Greg Davis.  This is a conservative district, and will certainly break for Wicker and McCain.  Davis’ campaign has attempted to do the same thing it did in the special election — paint Childers as a pawn of more liberal Democrats in the House and Senate.  That strategy didn’t succeed in June, when Childers won handily 54-46, and it’s not likely it will work again.

Prediction:  Childers (D) 52% - Davis (R) 48%

Alabama 2nd Congressional District

The retirement of Rep. Terry Everett provides Democrats with an opportunity to pick up a seat in this very conservative region of Alabama.  Everett ran around 70% in each of his last three races in this district, but the Democratic victories in runoff elections in similar districts, some of which I mentioned previously, demonstrates the vulnerability of Republicans in even very conservative districts without a popular incumbent to rely upon.  Polling in the 2nd has been erratic at best, with two polls in August showing Democrat Bobby Bright, mayor of Montgomery, ten points ahead of State Rep. Jay Love, and a second poll showing Love ahead by 18.  The most recent poll, taken in late October, shows Love with a two-point lead.  That’s very close considering the nature of the electorate here, where Bush won with 67% in 2004.  This is truly a toss-up race, but the Democrats can’t win them all, so I’ll give this one to Love.

Prediction: Bright (D) 47% - Love (R) 53%

Alabama 5th Congressional District

The retirement of Rep. Bud Cramer provides the Republicans a rare opportunity to pick up a seat.  This conservative district gave 60% to Bush in 2004, a substantial margin, but Cramer outperformed Bush here by garnering 73%, while his Republican opponent only pulled 27% — less, even, than John Kerry’s 39%.  Surprisingly, the 5th District has never elected a Republican to congress, and Republican Wayne Parker seems unlikely to change that.  Democrat Parker Griffith should be able to ride Cramer’s legacy, and a strong black turnout, to Congress.

Prediction: Griffith (D) 56% - Parker (R) 44%

South Carolina 1st Congressional District

Republican Rep. Henry Brown is used to winning big since he went to Congress in 2000, winning in 2002 with 89% and in 2004 with 88%.  In 2006, however, his numbers dropped significantly - to 60%.  Facing a solid Democratic challenger for the first time in businesswoman Linda Ketner, Brown could be in trouble.  The 1st District is 21% black and the Obama campaign has been running ads in South Carolina.  High black turnout could turn this race against Brown.  Ketner was only five points down in late October.  I predict an upset.

Prediction:  Ketner (D) 50% - Brown (R) 49%

Kentucky Senate

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is in a surprisingly tough fight against the resurgent Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, who twice ran and lost in gubernatorial primaries.  Recent polling shows McConnell with a five point advantage over Lunsford with nine percent undecided.  For such a large number of voters to be undecided on a long-term Republican Senator from a solidly red state, who is the leader of his party in the Senate to boot, is a bad sign.  Lunsford hasn’t run a spectacular race, but a large turnout in Lexington and Louisville could put him over the top.

Prediction: Lunsford (D) 49% - McConnell (R) 48%

Kentucky 3rd Congressional District

Democrat John Yarmouth won this District from Republican Anne Northrup in 2006, a cycle which saw Northrup on the sidelines for two months after the death of her son.  This year she’s attempting to reclaim her seat, but Yarmouth has already solidified his hold on the district and is consistently polling up over 10 points.

Prediction: Yarmouth (D) 56% - Northrup (R) 44%

Kansas 2nd Congressional District

Democrat Nancy Boyda, who lost to former Rep. Jim Ryun in 2004 before edging into Congress with a four point win in 2006, faces Kansas state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, who narrowly defeated Ryun in the Republican primary in early August.  Boyda has refused DNC and DCCC money in the race, because, one would assume, that would tie her to national Democrats.  Unfortunately, that also left her without much money to run a campaign with.  Late August polling showed Boyda with a five-point lead, but considering how quickly Ryun backed down following his primary loss Jenkins has almost certainly made significant gains since.  Boyda would have been better off listening to DCCC chair Rahm Emmanuel.

Prediction: Boyda (D) 48% - Jenkins (R) 52%

Wyoming At-Large House Seat

The retirement of Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin, who swept to office in the 1994 Republican tsunami, opened the door for Democrat Gary Trauner to try his hand again.  He ran against Cubin in 2006, eventually losing in one of the closest races in the country: 1,012 votes.  He immediately threw his hat back in the ring, and is now facing Cynthia Lummis.  Name recognition was inititally an advantage for Trauner, but his lead in polling evaporated by mid-October.  In Trauner’s favor is the fact that much of Wyoming will be seeing rain tomorrow, which is likely to lower Republican turnout in the face of an expected landslide for McCain there.  I predict a lucky break for Trauner.

Prediction: Trauner (D) 49% - Lummis (R) 48%

Idaho 1st Congressional District

Republican Congressman Bill Sali is in hot water in what should have been a safe Republican seat after a number of slipups and an aggressive fundraising effort by Democratic challenger Walt Minnick.  Sali may have lost his seat when he said that, “There are people out there without health care, and we need to address that, but it’s not as big of a problem as some people would make it out to be.”  Not the best move.  October polling showed Minnick up between six and seven points, and there’s no reason to believe those numbers have shifted.  Sali doesn’t hold on to his seat unless undecideds break for him nine-to-one, an unlikely prospect to be sure.

Prediction:  Minnick (D) 53% - Sali (R) 47%

Alaska At-Large House Seat

Republican Rep. Don Young had his party in fits when he won the primary by a mere 304 votes.  Why, you may ask?  Because Young has been embroiled in an FBI corruption investigation, amongst other things.  After 17 terms as Alaska’s congressman, Young has virtually no shot at holding on to his seat.  Polling has consistently shown Democrat Ethan Berkowitz aroung ten points up.  This seat looks to go Democratic for the first time since Young won it in 1972.

Prediction: Berkowitz (D) 55% - Young (R) 44%

Alaska Senate

To those of you following the news, the name Ted Stevens may sound familiar.  That’s because Sen. Stevens was recently found guilty of seven counts of lying on financial disclosure forms, which is a felony.  Democratic challenger Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage, was running even with Stevens even before his trail wrapped up on Oct. 27.  A Research 2000 poll conducted between Oct. 14 and 16, before the verdict was announced, found Begich with a two-point lead.  When they conducted the poll again, between the 28th and 30th, Begich had a 22 point lead.  All of the sudden, Mark Begich is looking like Mark Warner.  I hope you enjoy the Senate, Mr. Begich.

Prediction: Begich (D) 58% - Stevens (R) 42%

PART TWO

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